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NYSE Owner ICE Invests $2 Billion in Polymarket at Valuation of Up to $10 Billion

The capitalization of prediction markets operator Polymarket surged to $10 billion after Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE) invested $2 billion.

An agreement was negotiated between Shayne Coplan's company and the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, whereby the latter will invest $2 billion in the event contract purveyor at a premoney valuation of $8 billion. According to allegations that appeared last month, Polymarket was trying to seek funds in that valuation range. This is confirmed by the company's current post-investment valuation of $9 billion to $10 billion.

"Alongside its investment, ICE will become a global distributor of Polymarket’s event-driven data, providing customers with sentiment indicators on topics of market relevance. Additionally, ICE and Polymarket have also agreed to partner on future tokenization initiatives,” according to a statement.

According to ICE, the exchange operator's 2025 financial results and its intentions to distribute capital to shareholders will not be impacted by its cash investment in Polymarket. The financial services company stated that when it releases its third-quarter results on October 30, it would go into further information about its Polymarket investment.

In just four months, Polymarket's valuation has increased by at least nine times

Even if the prediction market operator is only investing "just" $9 billion in Polymarket as part of ICE's investment, that still represents a remarkable increase in a short period of time.

Direct rival Kalshi closed a $185 million Series C investment round in June, putting the company at $2 billion. Polymarket completed a capital raising at about the same time, valuing the business at $1 billion. In October, Polymarket's value has increased by at least nine times over the previous four months.

Even though Polymarket is still not permitted to conduct business in the US, this increase has already place, which means it is losing out on the opportunity to provide football event contracts to potential customers in this nation. Rival Kalshi has benefited greatly from those contracts, which has caused that prediction market to consistently see record-breaking activity. Polymarket has been hinting at football wagers in recent days and is anticipated to debut in the US soon.

Kalshi, which was valued at $2 billion in June, is reportedly considering further funding that would raise its valuation to $5 billion.

There is a further blurring of the line between financial markets and prediction

Hedge funds and other professional investors are some of the most active players in prediction markets. The conviction that professionals are risking their own money and reputations with transactions on yes/no exchanges like Kalshi and Polymarket is one of the reasons why some traders and retail investors vouch for the accuracy of prediction markets.

The distinction between traditional finance and derivatives—which some analysts compare directly to sports wagers—is becoming increasingly hazy as a result of the ICE/Polymarket merger. Flutter Entertainment's (NYSE: FLUT) FanDuel and CME Group (NASDAQ: CME) announced in June that they would collaborate on event contracts linked to financial assets, equities index prices, and economic events. In sports betting, the CME/FanDuel contracts will be timed and seem like a yes/no version of microbetting.

“Our partnership with ICE marks a major step in bringing prediction markets into the financial mainstream,” said Coplan in the statement.

Among the investors in polymarkets are Vitalik Buterin, a co-founder of Ethereum, Donald Trump Jr., and Peter Thiel's Founders Fund. In August, Trump Jr.'s 1789 Capital firm invested a multimillion-dollar, double-digit sum in Polymarket. He serves in advising capacities at Polymarket and Kalshi.